Tuesday, February 20, 2018

US Treasury #Bonds Review $TLT

US TBonds Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

US Treasury Bond's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

US Treasury bonds have been steadily approaching triple downside alignment for weeks. US 10-Year bonds, the leader of the group, has been Triple aligned down since 1/1/2018. Have no doubt, the bears control the trend and profits until these trends reverse or expire from age. Bullish bond narratives are delusional and dangerous.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Monday, February 19, 2018

Gold Review $GLD

Gold Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Gold's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Gold and silver, to the dismay of the bulls, has struggled to rally amid equity weakness. How can this be? The tape, a trend driven by the intentions of the invisible hand, says it's not ready. The precious metals composite (PMC) has been bearish since 4/14/17 (chart 1). Gold, silver, and the gold shares will disappoint the bulls until it reverses (turns positive).

Gold's trend, a function of confidence, could be kicked hard to the downside with an upside breakout of confidence (chart 2). This risk is real and could easily unfold in 2018, due to the close proximity of CE to 91. Independence of thought and discipline is important here. Although the gold bugs are likely screaming buy early in 2018, their dedication to the cause blinds them of key trends urging caution.

Chart 1


Chart 2


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

#Bitcoin Review $GBTC

Bitcoin Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Bitcoin's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

GBTC, an equity proxy for Bitcoin, transition from downside alignment to consolidation (misalignment) on 2/15. Extreme readings in the cycle of TIME prior to 2/15 made this trend transition an expected outcome. See PREV Matrix

Those that reduced risk or shorted in early January should have covered their shorts as the cycle of TIME (BrST) pushed above 2. Previous comments that "holding aggressive and profitable positions past the cycle of TIME is foolish" appears to be proven correct again.

Now the trend is compressing, a precursor of change towards upside alignment. Daily upside alignment will mark the return of TRIPLE UPSIDE ALIGNMENT and pain for bears unable or unwilling to read the tape.


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Chart 1: GBTC Tertiary Trend


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Sunday, February 18, 2018

#Matrix Update $SPY $TLT $GLD $SLV $UUP $FXE

The Matrix
The PREV (the Matrix), an array that display the message of price, volume, leverage, and time, helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities to buy or sell commodities, US treasury bonds, foreign exchange markets, and domestic and international equity markets.

The Matrix has been redesigned to display not only leverage (DI) but also price and volume alignment.

Gain access to the message of the market to trade like a professional today.

If PREV (Matrix) returns to regular publication, the new format will display the tertiary, secondary, primary trends together. The computer's output has been reprogrammed to scan for triple (Trip UP or DOWN) and double (Dbl UP or DOWN) alignment, the more profitable setups in tape reading. Setups are graded 1, 2, 3. Grade 1, usually under triple alignment lead by the primary trend, are generally the most desirable.

Subscription will be $150 to $300 for the full year. Subscriptions costs for new subscribers will be reduced on a sliding scale as the year progresses. Review the new format at your convenience. Please CONTACT US with comments, suggestions, and subscription intentions. The PREV will not be reintroduced if interest is low.

PREV (the Matrix)

Insights is a forum that uses the markets as the ultimate teacher and provides unique perspective on capital market, economic, and geopolitical trends.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

#VIX Review $VXX

VIX Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

VIX's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Experts, largely following opinion, have been talking US stocks up or down for months. The TAPE or message of the market is the only opinion that matters.

The VIX fell out of triple alignment when the daily trend entered consolidation on 1/16/18, a misalignment of price and volume. Misalignment entered upside alignment on 1/25. I wrote about the transition in January, saying the majority, blinded by the relentless rally and ego, would miss the it and not reduce risk.

Upside alignment, a trend that depicts rising volatility, fear, and lower stock prices, has not subsided. While upside alignment has yet to spread to the secondary (weekly) and primary (monthly) trends, it's inflicted heavy damaged to the trend over the short-term. Downward deterioration of the term structure within the VIX futures market highlights the damage. A bearish crossover generated week ending 2/16 favors continuation of the correction that will likely transition to the secondary trend (chart 1).

Follow me on Twitter or facebook for further discussion.

Chart 1: Week Ending 2/16


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Saturday, February 17, 2018

#Dow Industrials Review $DIA

Dow Ind Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

The Dow Industrials' overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in the The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

US stocks as defined by the Dow Industrials remains in cause building as long as misalignment of the tape exist and price trades below 26.6K. The bulls could be facing this reality for months. Key support and resistance zones have been marked (chart).

Daily downside alignment defines consolidation, a decline within secondary and primary up trends since 2/5. The bears follow these trends as long as alignment and TIME permit.

The consolidation, though fast and violent, hasn't reversed upside alignment in the secondary and primary trend. Further selling or failure to recover lost ground in February will likely lead to compression of the secondary and primary trend. Compression, a precursor of change and increasing volatility ahead, would warn the bulls that the secondary and primary up trends may be vulnerable. Expanding consolidation to the secondary trend would would warn of longer and deeper correction.

Chart


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Violence In America

News
The cycle of violence in America continues to repeat. Americans, citizens of a country founded on the principles of ego, self-interests (money), and most importantly violence in its unlimited forms, should not be surprised by its existence. Ego driven violence, a cornerstone of American culture from work to place, is embraced and taught early in life. We quickly shun ideas, creative minds, and leaders as strange or weak for advocating open hand rather than a closed fists solutions to life's challenges. History, history or religious books are often used and cited to support our actions. Rest assured, reasons that place blame on the individuals rather than society, such as "they were all mentally ill" will support society's cultural norms rather than force us to follow a more enlightened path that breaks the cycle of violence.

Headline: Is There Any Way For Schools To Prevent Shootings?

Could anyone have stopped this? That's one of the biggest questions for schools and educators as the nation takes in the facts of the shooting in Parkland, Fla., that has left 17 dead and 23 injured.

While the U.S. remains a global outlier by far when it comes to mass shootings, and owns 42 percent of the world's guns, the fact is that most schools in the country have taken steps to prepare for this kind of threat.


more

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.