Wednesday, March 1, 2017

The Majority Is Still Too Afraid To Buy Stocks $SPX

News
This the same type of analysis that told investors to to keep their powder dry (don't buy stocks) because the VIX was too low. Although the message of the market told us not to listen, be absolutely certain the majority, a group just itching to follow bad advice, did. Now they're watching a winning streak with no end in sight, a rally day after day. Eventually the majority will scuttle their fear and enter the trend late, thus, assuming the role as the bagholders of the next great trend transition. How will we know? The Matrix reports long-term concentration and direction (cycles and trends) that will likely test if not exceed previous buying climaxes. Subscribers will be selling to the bagholders when it happens; this is worth the subscription price alone. This climax will likely be a once in a generation event. Sorry, people most of us won't live long enough to see another one.

Headline: You can kiss 10% stock returns goodbye

Maybe you’re expecting the stock market over the coming decade to match its historical annualized total return of 10%.

Fuggedaboutit. We’ll be lucky if the S&P 500 SPX, +1.42% gains 4% annually on a price-only basis over the next decade or so.

This sobering forecast is based on the outsized role that dividends play in stocks’ long-term return. Assuming dividends represent the same proportion of the stock market’s future return as they have in the past, the market’s current rock-bottom dividend yield suggests that investors should lower their expectations about future total return.


more

----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Tighter Borders Can't Impede the Flow of Labor

News
While some are cheering a tighter borders, citing terrorism, the need to curtail drug traffic and flow of "bad guys" without citing their overall percentage of within the pool of immigration, they'll likely ignore the consequences of them as well. High tech industries from manufacturing, engineering, design, medical and research require global talent that pulls from the world's extensive labor pool. If access to labor is restricted, it will find somewhere else to call home. After that, everyone will be bitching that Wal-Mart is no longer hiring because high tech industries, compiled of mostly foreigners after industries leave the US, have made human employees and brick and mortar stores a dated concept. Basically, the trends are in place already, the more we resist rather than embrace them, the more labor will flow out of the United Sates. Getting the jobs to return home won't be so easy. But, what the hell, at least the borders are tight, right?

Headline: Tibet women's soccer team denied US travel visas

A Tibet women's soccer team has been denied U.S. visas to participate in a tournament in Dallas.

Cassie Childers, a coach and executive director for Tibet Women's Soccer, said that 16 members of the team were told at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi, India, that they "have no good reason to visit the U.S.," during their visit on Feb. 24. They were seeking travel visas to participate in the Dallas Cup soccer tournament scheduled to take place April 9-16

Childers, who is from New Jersey, said in an email from India that embassy officials did not glance at the documents nor provide any other reasons or explanations.


more

----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

02/24/17 #USTreasuryBonds Chart $TLT

US TBonds Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

US Treasury Bond's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the COT Matrix and for subscribers.

While coordinated 'stimulus' supports a countertrend rally of commodities foreshadowed by negative concentration discussed months ago, it won't reverse defensive global capital flows regardless of the hype. Defensive flows likely includes US Treasury bonds until the wolf pack culls the herd of weak European and Asian debt. Only after they're thinned will the focus turn to the US. Gentleman could very well prefer government bonds, notes, and bills at least in the initial stages of the next panic.

What Mellow omitted is that investors prefer the public sector (bonds) when confidence in the private sector (stocks) is failing. Investors preferred bonds in 1929 because confidence in the private sector was failing. While gentlemen could prefer bonds in the initial stages of the next panic, they'll like turn on them as confidence in the public sector falters from an already shaken position. This will burn a majority populated by central bankers and followers of today's bullish headline hype rather quickly.


Subscriber Comments



----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Bankrupting of US Pension Funds Has Begun #PensisCrisis

News
Like many union shops in the private sector, the teamsters Local 707 was a victim of bad timing and industry deregulation. The New York State Teamsters pension fund and the Central States Pension Fund are also teetering on the brink of insolvency.

Pensions across America, quickly entering crisis mode, lost money in the 2007-2009 stock market crash. Poor decision making and horrible timing sold 'risky' stocks at the bottom for the 'safety' of US government bonds. In other words, most pension funds needing 8% or higher returns to survive (payout to retirees) shifted to an asset yielding less than 3% and primed for a secular change of trend from falling to rising interest rates. This foolish decision will bankruptcy an increasing number of private and public pension funds from 2017 to 2020.

Headline: Drained pension fund has retired New York union workers pinching pennies to survive, as doom looms for reserves across U.S.

In the backseat of his beat-up car, Tim Chmil stashes what he refers to as his new retirement fund — bags and bags of recyclable bottles and cans.

Every time he spots a bottle on the street, he bends down to pick it up.

“Even if it’s just 5 cents, it’s money, and I need it,” the 71-year-old said.

It’s not the way the ex-trucker — a member of Teamsters Local 707 — expected to fund his senior years.


more

----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

02/24/17 #AustralianDollar Chart $FXA

Aussie Dollar Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

The Aussie's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, defined and are discussed in the COT Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments



----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

02/24/17 #CanadianDollar Chart $FXC

Canadian $ Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

The Loonie's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments



----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

02/24/17 #RetailStock Chart $XRT #Free

News
Economic Activity Composite's slowing intermediate term trend suggests not only slowing US growth amid global economic slowdown but also a US stock rally driven more by capital flow (global money flows) than economic 'fundamentals'. The resulting cycle inversion, a violation of many of the 'rules' and theories taught by investment and finance, means the majority investors will be under weight stocks for the bulk of the rally.

While today's weak outlook by Target could be dismissed a byproduct of Amazon's success, it's a consistent message echoed by many in the retail sector - including Amazon. The retail stock ETF, an index that includes the likes of Amazon and Netflix, has been lagging the broader market since 2013 (chart). The well-defined downtrend suggests a steady deterioration of the American consumer. That's a big deal because private consumption accounts for nearly 70% of US GDP.

Subscriber Comments

Retail Stock vs S&P 500


Headline: Target shares plunge on earnings shortfall and weak outlook on sales

Target reported sales and earnings that missed Wall Street's expectations on Tuesday, in what was a disappointing holiday quarter for the big-box retailer. Its outlook for fiscal 2017 also fell well short of expectations.

Target's stock price sank more than 13 percent in early trading, putting it on pace for its worst day since Aug. 31, 1998, when the company shed more than 16 percent.


more

----------------------------------

Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.